Facts and Figures
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This map highlights some of the impacts that may occur if the global average temperature rises by 4 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial climate average.
Climate change directly affects crop productivity and food production.
This could result in tens to hundreds of millions of additional people (roughly a 10-20% increase), at risk from hunger. Most of this increase is expected in Sub-Saharan Africa, and in some parts of south Asia and Central America.
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Climate change is expected to put 49 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2020, and 132 million by 2050.
IFAD
It is estimated that by 2100 parts of the Sahara are likely to emerge as the biggest losers from climate change, showing likely agricultural losses of between 2 and 7% of GDP. Western and central Africa are also vulnerable, with impacts ranging from 2 to 4%. Northern and southern Africa are expected to have losses of 0.4 to 1.3%.
Mendelsohn, R., A. Dinar and A. Dalfelt, 2000b: Climate change impacts on African agriculture. Preliminary analysis prepared for the World Bank, Washington, District of Columbia, 25 pp.
The costs of ignoring climate change have been estimated at more than that of the two world wars and the Great Depression (5 to 20% of GDP). Only 1% of global GDP per annum must be invested to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Stern Report
By 2080, an extra 600 million people worldwide could be affected by malnutrition as a result of climate change.
IPCC
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Agriculture and deforestation together contribute up to 30 per cent of all greenhouse gas emissions.
IFAD
At the sector level, the largest contributors to global emissions are electricity and heat (collectively 24.6 percent), land-use change and forestry (18.2 percent), transport (13.5 percent), and agriculture (13.5 percent).
Kevin A Baumert, Tim Herzog, Jonathan Pershing (2005). Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute
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About 95 percent of African agriculture depends on rainfall.
IFAD
In Africa alone, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change by 2020.
IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 7-22
In some countries, yields from rainfed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 per cent by 2020.
IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. (Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 7-22
Projected reductions in yield in some countries could be as much as 50% by 2020, and crop net revenues could fall by as much as 90% by 2100, with small-scale farmers being the most affected.
Boko, M., I. Niang, A. Nyong, C. Vogel, A. Githeko, M. Medany, B. Osman-Elasha, R. Tabo and P. Yanda, 2007: Africa. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press,Cambridge UK, 433-467
A temperature rise of 2° would dramatically shrink the land available for growing Robusta coffee in Uganda and restrict it to upland areas.
DFID
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“Current energy, financial and climate crises increase the likelihood of future food price volatility unless national food production capacity is enhanced so that countries can better weather increasing international price and supply volatility. Developing countries need policy flexibility in agricultural decision-making, paired with significantly increased international support and investment, so they can increase domestic food production and buffer the devastating impact of price volatility on their populations.”
IAASTD. (2008). Food Security in a Volatile World. IAASTD Issues in Brief. p.2
“About 30% of global emissions leading to climate change are attributable to agricultural activities, including land use changes such as deforestation. The relative prices of carbon, oil, nutrients and farm outputs, as well as human ingenuity in designing appropriate policies and institutions, will determine the profitability of emission reduction and sequestration for farmers. This transition towards climate change adapted agricultural systems is all the more challenging, given the anticipated agroenvironmental consequences of meeting increased income-related demand for animal product protein.”
IAASTD. (2008). Food Security in a Volatile World. IAASTD Issues in Brief. p.3-4
“Climate change, which is taking place at a time of increasing demand for food, feed, fiber and fuel, has the potential to irreversibly damage the natural resource base on which agriculture depends. The relationship between climate change and agriculture is a two-way street; agriculture contributes to climate change in several major ways and climate change in general adversely affects agriculture.”
The Executive Summary of the IAASTD Synthesis Report, Art. 4.1
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