As global geopolitics shift, Alexander Müller explains why cutting investment in food and agriculture is a strategic risk, and what donors must do differently to meet the moment.
Food and agriculture matter more than ever and can be part of the solution.
Maurizio Navarra/GDPRD: Thank you for coming to this year’s Annual General Assembly. We appreciated your keynote presentation. First and foremost, what do you think are the key geopolitical forces driving the current upheaval in food and agriculture? Why must donors pay attention now more than ever?
Alexander Müller/TMG Think Tank: We are currently experiencing a situation where the world order as we know it—established after the fall of the Iron Curtain in Europe—is disappearing. We are at the beginning of a new global world order, but in the middle of a world disorder. Concerns about security, and in particular the war in Ukraine, dominate the agenda.
At this time, those of us in the food and agriculture community have to demonstrate that we are part of the solution. Food and agriculture are needed to stabilize and to develop a new world order.
This is challenging because we are normally not considered one of the big players, but we have a lot to offer.
Cutting support for investments in food and agriculture may be the most expensive way to save money.
Maurizio: In light of these changes, what do you see as the most important strategic priorities for strengthening agrifood systems in the years ahead? What should we do to make sure that this sector emerges more strongly?
Alexander: Currently, our sector is a victim of the new geopolitical order. Funding for food and agriculture has decreased, and it will continue to decrease. Therefore, we have to take three steps.
First, we need to analyse what our success stories over the last ten years are, and identify where we did not deliver.
Second, we must assess our potential to help stabilize the world. Here, I am convinced that we have to move out of our silos. We have to invite new partners, and we have to be very strategic.
My dream, Maurizio, is that in six months’ time, people from the security community, from the health sector, from finance, will come to you and say: We need your help. Because finally, they have realized that you have a lot to offer and that you can be part of the solution.
Alexander Müller delivers the keynote address “Prioritizing agrifood systems amid upheaval in development finance,”at the 2025 Annual General Assembly in Brussels.
We are at the beginning of a new global world order, but in the middle of a world disorder.
The third step is that we have to be strategic about investment. It doesn’t help to say, “Let’s replace declining ODA by private sector money.”
We must have a coherent idea of how investments work—where we need ODA, for example to de-risk loans, and where the private sector can play a role.
In the end, I believe we need a combination of food security, diplomacy, and a new understanding of investment in food and agriculture.
At this time, those of us in the food and agriculture community have to demonstrate that we are part of the solution.
Maurizio: I would like to follow up on the point you just raised. Even though the current geopolitical context is what it is, we are seeing new initiatives emerge, some of which were showcased today. For example, Mission AgriConnect from the World Bank, or the Asian Development Bank committing to invest US$40 billion from now to 2030 in agriculture and rural development.
Do you think these initiatives represent the seeds of what you are describing, or are they still far from your vision?
Alexander: You may be right that these are the seeds. But we know it takes a long time from planting the seeds in the ground and the harvest.
The critical time is beginning now, because I think that new initiatives alone will not be enough. We also have to change the mindset. Until yesterday, we have been perceived as the one who spend money without real change. The number of hungry people has remained roughly the same for the past ten years.
From tomorrow onward, we must be seen as the seeds you mentioned, demonstrating that our food security diplomacy can contribute to finding solutions during a very difficult time.
Take Ukraine as an example. What happens after a possible peace deal is negotiated? Will Ukraine remain the number one exporter of commodities to Africa? We know how vulnerable some African countries are because they depend on these commodities. What is the role of investment in the future of agriculture when there is a risk that global trade could shrink or even collapse?
So we have to be risk-oriented, remain open-minded, and build new partnerships.
We have to move out of our silos. We have to invite new partners, and we have to be very strategic.
Maurizio: What value does the Donor Platform’s informal donor coordination space offer in today’s unpredictable and rapidly changing environment? What should we do as an informal network and platform?
Alexander: First, don’t underestimate how other people perceive you. They see you as a powerful player. You are coordinating the real big donors in the sector of food and agriculture and development cooperation, even if you don’t make the decisions yourself.
If you are able to launch a debate among the donors about the way forward and if you are able to invite the banks, the private sector, and development finance institutions, then you have real convening power. That is why people are looking at you.
If you tell the story that more investment is needed, people will ask how to do it, and you must be ready with an answer.
Maurizio: Thanks very much, Alexander. It was a real pleasure to interview you. Would you have one final takeaway to share?
Alexander: My key message would be this: cutting support for investments in food and agriculture may be the most expensive way to save money.
Learn more about the 2025 Annual General Assembly on “Investing in the Future of Agrifood Systems: New directions for development finance”.
