Resilient growth but with increasing fragilities
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The OECD Economic Outlook (Volume 2025 Issue 2) finds that global growth has been more resilient than expected, supported by improved financial conditions, rising AI-related investment and trade, and macroeconomic policy support.
However, economic fragilities are increasing. Labour markets are beginning to soften despite stable unemployment, with job vacancies declining and confidence weakening in many countries. Risks to the outlook remain high, including further trade restrictions, financial market volatility, and fiscal pressures that could raise long-term interest rates, tighten financial conditions, and weigh on growth.
Key figures include:
- 2.9% Projected global GDP growth for 2026
- 3.1% Projected GDP growth in OECD countries for 2027
What can policymakers do?
- Work together to ease trade tensions
- Maintain vigilance on inflation risks
- Strengthen financial stability frameworks
- Reinforce fiscal discipline and long-term sustainability
- Pursue ambitious structural reforms
Publication date: 2 December 2025
Suggested citation:
OECD (2025), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 2: Resilient Growth but with Increasing Fragilities, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9f653ca1-en.
