Decade-long outlook by OECD and FAO on growth, resilience, nutrition in agriculture
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OECD-FAO published a joint paper envisioning a decade-long comprehensive analysis of national, regional and global agriculture industries. The Outlook used the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model with data up to 2025, with applying the up-to-date impacts of 2026 issues. The Outlook primarily focuses on productivity gains and their impacts on nutrition and the environment, regarding individual stakeholders.
While the baseline expects the average gross per capita agricultural income to increase by 9% over the next decade, there is still a one-in-four chance that income per worker could be at least 12% lower than its expectation.
For consumption, diversification of diets in lower middle-income countries are expected, while low-income countries are yet expected to lag behind with constraints. This also relates to the necessary expansion of agriculture, focusing on livestock, even though productivity gains are the utmost goal.
Considering these circumstances, the Outlook emphasizes multilateral cooperation and rules-based international trade as fundamentals of resilience in global agriculture markets.
